The recent imposition of U.S. tariffs on cashew imports will significantly impact global trade dynamics in the coming months.
Key Developments:
- Tariff Implementation: In April 2025, the U.S. announced a 46% tariff on Vietnamese imports, including cashews, citing trade imbalances. This rate was later reduced to a 10% minimum tariff, but the uncertainty has disrupted trade flows.
- Impact on Vietnamese Exporters: Vietnam, accounting for approximately 25-27% of U.S. cashew imports, faces challenges due to increased costs and logistical issues. Exporters are experiencing losses, with some companies losing around $24,000 per container due to high raw material costs and inability to adjust export prices accordingly.
- Shift in Global Trade: The U.S. tariffs have prompted Vietnamese exporters to explore alternative markets. The European Union, benefiting from a zero percent import tax under the FTA with Vietnam, has seen a surge in cashew imports, reaching a record 42,850 tonnes valued at €273 million in the first quarter of 2025.
- Opportunities for Other Exporters: Indian cashew exporters may gain a competitive edge in the U.S. market, as their products are approximately 20% cheaper than Vietnamese cashews due to the tariff differential.
Outlook:
The U.S. tariffs are expected to lead to higher cashew prices domestically, reduced import volumes from Vietnam, and a reorientation of global trade routes. Exporters are seeking new markets, and countries like India and those in Africa may capitalise on the shifting dynamics. However, the long-term impact will depend on how stakeholders adapt to these changes and whether any further policy adjustments occur
